Fire EruptingTier 2
at Grand Archive
decks
1
(2.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-2-1
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.7%
avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
51.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1330
· median 1330
· range 1330–1330
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1053
Q1 1152
Q3 1336
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Wind Allies | 15.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Slimes | 11.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -3.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.9 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.6 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tonoris | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Erupting decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
